New research from The University of Texas at Austin finds industrial buildout in oil, gas and petrochemical sectors in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southwest regions could generate more than half a billion tons of additional greenhouse gas ラーメンベット 入金されない per year by 2030. That figure is equivalent to 8% of total current annual U.S. ラーメンベット 入金されない. These ラーメンベット 入金されない are driven by the regions’ oil and gas boom, and a substantial fraction comes from large industrial facilities such as new petrochemical plants, liquefied natural gas export terminals and refineries. The vast majority of these ラーメンベット 入金されない will come from Texas and Louisiana.
The paper detailing the study, “ラーメンベット 入金されない in the Stream: Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Impacts of an Oil and Gas Boom,” was published this week in Environmental ラーメンベット 入金されない Letters.
This study comes on the heels of a new report from the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP), which finds that industry buildout in addition to drilling could release up to 227 million tons of greenhouse gas ラーメンベット 入金されない by 2025. Although the EIP report’s findings are based on permitted ラーメンベット 入金されない, UT researchers accounted for future permitted and nonpermitted ラーメンベット 入金されない through 2030.
“We wanted to understand if the industrial buildout we were reading about was a greenhouse gas mountain or a molehill,” said Andrew Waxman, assistant professor of economics and public policy at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at UT Austin and a co-author of the study. “ラーメンベット 入金されない from oil and gas production are well known, but our analysis finds over two-thirds of future ラーメンベット 入金されない will come from midstream and downstream sources, including petrochemicals, liquefied natural gas export facilities and refineries. These sources are a pretty big mountain that policymakers and climate modelers don’t seem to be currently accounting for.”
By 2030, the study finds that 541 million tons of additional CO2e* could be emitted each year from the industrial facilities and infrastructure projects that have been recently constructed, are under construction, are permitted to be constructed or are nonpermitted facilities in the Gulf region. These ラーメンベット 入金されない are just from on-site combustion and do not include tailpipe or other end-use ラーメンベット 入金されない.
*CO2e is a measure used to compare the global warming potential of various greenhouse gases by converting amounts of other gases to the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.
These ラーメンベット 入金されない represent more than 8% of total current annual U.S. greenhouse gas ラーメンベット 入金されない and are about equal to the ラーメンベット 入金されない from 131 coal-fired power plants.
“If these projects move forward without mechanisms to reduce their GHG ラーメンベット 入金されない, reducing U.S. ラーメンベット 入金されない may become even more difficult,” Waxman explained.
Petrochemical facilities (40%) are the largest source of the new ラーメンベット 入金されない. ラーメンベット 入金されない from liquified natural gas (LNG) represent about 20%, and 22% of the projected ラーメンベット 入金されない will come from facilities that are already built or under construction.
“Our methodology was a simple analysis based on publicly available data, and we were surprised by the large amount of ラーメンベット 入金されない from these industrial sources that don’t get a lot of attention, such as ethane crackers and LNG terminals,” said Benjamin Leibowicz, a professor at UT Austin and a co-author of the study. “These facilities may operate for decades, so it’s critical that we understand the long-term impact they will have on the country’s greenhouse gas ラーメンベット 入金されない, and that’s why a second phase of this work will address solutions to reduce these ラーメンベット 入金されない.”
Several papersand media stories during the past decade have examined the rate and quantity of ラーメンベット 入金されない from oil and gas production facilities, known as upstream ラーメンベット 入金されない. Midstream and downstream ラーメンベット 入金されない, however, including those from petrochemical facilities, liquefied natural gas terminals and refineries, are less understood. Based on data from permits, ラーメンベット 入金されない factors, and facility capacities, the authors calculated likely ラーメンベット 入金されない from midstream and downstream sources along the Gulf Coast that will be built as a result of increased oil and gas production in the region.
Construction projects in other regions where oil and ラーメンベット 入金されない production has increased in recent years – in the Appalachia and Great Plains areas, for example – were not included in this analysis.
The study was funded by the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation. A second phase of research will examine policy and technical solutions that could reduce these projected ラーメンベット 入金されない.
